* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 07/03/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 26 26 21 20 20 20 18 17 17 16 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 26 26 21 20 20 20 18 17 17 16 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 10 12 11 10 10 10 16 12 8 13 12 9 8 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -6 0 0 -3 -6 -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 42 78 100 100 120 139 120 102 102 103 95 86 122 148 153 174 193 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.1 25.2 25.0 24.4 24.4 24.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 151 148 145 134 131 125 121 113 114 112 106 106 112 107 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 3 4 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 85 83 81 80 77 69 65 56 56 48 48 42 41 37 35 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 34 29 27 29 39 27 33 8 22 8 0 -7 11 12 6 200 MB DIV 56 23 11 -16 -27 -33 12 28 -22 -66 10 30 -31 -36 -18 -10 -3 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -5 0 0 5 1 1 -3 0 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 423 433 419 402 384 414 524 618 649 744 860 955 1082 1222 1329 1474 1652 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.6 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.8 105.4 105.9 106.5 107.9 109.5 111.3 113.2 115.1 116.9 118.5 120.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 23 28 25 10 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. 25. 24. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 1. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.5 104.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 07/03/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 1.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 07/03/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##