* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 07/03/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 22 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 22 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 12 11 15 11 10 17 16 12 8 16 12 9 8 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -3 -5 -5 0 -1 -7 -10 -2 0 0 1 5 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 21 40 84 95 123 176 166 146 127 137 123 94 103 120 165 156 185 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.8 27.9 26.5 25.0 25.4 26.1 25.1 25.1 25.4 24.1 24.0 24.1 23.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 152 143 128 112 117 124 114 114 117 103 103 104 101 103 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 83 84 81 79 79 71 66 60 54 50 44 41 38 34 32 27 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 6 5 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 41 49 50 34 42 26 28 23 28 31 39 40 34 25 19 200 MB DIV 82 65 44 14 -19 -36 -9 29 -11 -48 -48 14 2 -50 -14 -17 5 700-850 TADV -3 0 -1 -9 -4 3 4 1 2 1 0 -2 -2 -6 -5 -2 1 LAND (KM) 352 349 337 344 340 421 538 557 648 777 880 999 1128 1259 1405 1605 1863 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.7 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.5 105.3 106.1 106.9 108.6 110.4 112.1 114.1 116.0 117.9 119.7 121.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 10 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 26 24 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -0. 5. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. 22. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -4. -9. -15. -16. -17. -19. -19. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.0 103.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 07/03/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 8.2% 2.8% 1.5% 0.3% 1.5% 0.4% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 07/03/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##