* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902024 10/21/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 44 58 71 79 82 85 85 84 80 74 72 65 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 44 58 71 79 82 85 85 84 80 74 72 65 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 55 65 73 77 76 72 64 54 44 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 18 16 16 13 13 11 6 10 9 17 26 21 30 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 -5 -4 -5 -1 2 0 0 3 4 12 5 4 SHEAR DIR 102 93 91 102 97 79 49 40 37 85 124 173 200 213 183 197 214 SST (C) 30.4 29.9 30.0 29.4 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.4 28.8 28.0 28.1 27.7 26.9 26.6 25.7 25.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 172 167 167 160 154 153 156 160 155 147 148 144 136 132 121 113 102 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -53.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 80 80 81 80 80 78 76 72 67 66 61 57 55 52 52 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 9 10 13 16 18 20 23 25 25 25 23 24 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 49 58 72 68 51 50 44 45 35 24 15 22 28 30 22 1 -11 200 MB DIV 50 50 66 88 109 95 39 -33 -10 31 72 -10 3 22 30 39 25 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 3 0 -3 -2 -2 1 2 3 0 1 9 12 18 13 LAND (KM) 95 228 327 413 474 605 704 819 978 1057 1271 1492 1734 1955 2119 2090 2030 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 14.3 13.9 13.6 13.5 13.2 13.3 13.7 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.2 99.0 100.6 101.9 103.0 105.2 107.4 109.9 112.7 115.9 119.6 123.4 127.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 14 12 11 11 11 13 16 17 18 19 17 15 12 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 37 37 37 33 31 25 22 21 13 7 4 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 8. 16. 24. 31. 36. 39. 42. 44. 45. 45. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 24. 23. 20. 16. 16. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 33. 46. 54. 57. 60. 60. 59. 55. 49. 47. 40. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 97.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902024 INVEST 10/21/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.91 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.5% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 40.3% 13.4% 8.7% 13.1% 20.1% 45.7% 38.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 8.3% 2.4% 0.6% 0.4% 2.7% 4.2% 0.8% Consensus: 1.9% 24.4% 11.0% 3.1% 4.5% 15.4% 24.4% 13.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902024 INVEST 10/21/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##