* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902024 08/21/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 33 36 38 41 42 42 41 40 38 35 32 29 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 33 36 38 41 42 42 41 40 38 36 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 20 12 18 24 28 17 23 9 15 23 34 34 34 31 36 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 1 2 2 -2 -1 -2 0 -4 -2 -6 -3 -2 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 82 66 50 44 41 20 7 12 335 310 273 264 261 264 263 260 251 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 27.8 27.0 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 143 145 148 142 134 133 128 127 128 133 137 140 141 140 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 66 67 70 71 73 70 69 61 54 46 40 37 36 34 36 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 52 52 41 40 28 25 14 38 24 28 27 34 27 30 38 45 200 MB DIV 51 50 35 60 48 53 34 25 23 35 27 21 7 -1 33 31 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -2 -4 4 0 8 10 2 -6 -4 -8 -10 LAND (KM) 2051 2027 1983 1929 1859 1697 1530 1318 1051 751 418 155 12 29 202 369 463 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.7 12.1 13.4 14.7 16.0 17.3 18.6 19.8 20.7 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.7 137.9 138.3 138.7 139.2 140.2 141.3 142.9 145.1 147.7 150.8 153.9 157.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 6 7 9 9 11 14 15 16 15 14 13 9 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 15 16 18 25 8 4 3 0 0 1 7 17 21 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 804 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -6. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. -16. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 13. 10. 7. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 137.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902024 INVEST 08/21/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.24 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 6.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 4.2% 4.6% 0.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 7.0% SDCON: .6% 9.0% 3.8% .6% 0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902024 INVEST 08/21/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##