* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902024 08/21/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 29 31 33 34 35 36 37 37 36 35 33 30 27 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 29 31 33 34 35 36 37 37 36 35 33 30 27 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 19 18 17 16 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 30 28 30 27 28 20 22 17 12 13 26 33 35 35 38 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -4 -6 -7 -5 0 -5 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 86 81 68 64 61 36 20 9 9 336 310 264 252 253 244 257 272 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 27.7 26.7 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.8 26.4 26.8 27.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 142 143 145 146 141 131 125 124 121 123 129 132 133 135 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 66 69 69 72 73 69 64 57 50 44 40 37 32 30 30 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 61 54 49 37 30 21 12 19 35 34 40 44 48 38 40 18 200 MB DIV 22 41 34 8 34 42 42 14 23 26 33 49 39 4 23 14 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 -4 -2 -3 -2 4 3 4 5 0 -1 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 2056 2032 1998 1964 1924 1800 1669 1527 1321 1077 816 534 322 167 111 96 181 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.6 12.5 13.8 15.0 16.5 17.9 19.4 20.6 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.7 137.9 138.2 138.5 138.8 139.6 140.3 141.2 142.7 144.7 147.0 149.8 152.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 5 6 8 9 11 13 14 14 14 13 11 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 15 15 16 22 16 7 5 0 0 0 0 1 11 10 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. 27. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -19. -19. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 137.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902024 INVEST 08/21/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.14 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.6% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 4.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0% 4.3% 2.4% .5% .5% 2.8% 2.5% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902024 INVEST 08/21/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##