* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902024 08/20/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 30 30 31 31 30 29 27 26 24 23 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 30 30 31 31 30 29 27 26 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 29 28 30 31 27 24 14 24 10 14 16 23 35 35 38 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -6 -4 -2 0 -3 -7 0 -2 -3 0 0 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 87 84 75 57 54 47 27 15 10 355 331 291 269 254 249 256 256 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.9 26.6 26.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 142 142 145 147 141 137 124 124 123 122 124 131 132 137 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 64 68 71 71 73 70 68 59 52 42 37 33 33 32 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 57 58 53 50 37 23 18 11 27 26 31 32 42 35 27 19 200 MB DIV 47 39 50 52 56 73 58 20 -6 0 -9 12 28 2 20 30 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 3 -2 2 10 8 9 -1 1 LAND (KM) 2077 2062 2033 1999 1960 1859 1732 1601 1426 1244 1003 732 460 244 124 79 147 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.3 12.1 13.5 14.9 16.1 17.4 18.5 19.6 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.6 137.7 138.0 138.3 138.6 139.2 139.8 140.5 141.8 143.2 145.3 147.8 150.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 4 6 8 8 9 10 12 14 13 15 13 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 15 15 15 18 22 8 14 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. 29. 28. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -18. -22. -23. -23. -22. -21. -19. -19. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 137.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902024 INVEST 08/20/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.14 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.8% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 12.0% SDCON: 0% 4.1% 2.2% .5% 0% 2.7% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902024 INVEST 08/20/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##