* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902024 08/20/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 37 43 48 51 52 51 50 47 46 48 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 37 43 48 51 52 51 50 47 46 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 36 37 37 36 36 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 24 21 21 16 17 11 5 3 3 4 9 10 17 17 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 0 1 0 -5 -4 -1 0 -3 -3 -1 -3 -4 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 82 84 78 87 98 69 74 65 333 341 229 245 249 249 242 249 267 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.2 26.0 26.6 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 145 146 146 148 146 139 137 133 130 129 126 124 130 135 137 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 8 700-500 MB RH 55 56 59 61 65 68 66 62 59 56 50 46 42 41 41 38 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 82 78 78 85 88 82 66 57 48 49 39 40 39 36 46 40 200 MB DIV 65 82 82 76 68 50 61 35 25 19 16 13 3 16 3 -1 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -3 2 1 4 4 5 -1 LAND (KM) 2105 2101 2098 2039 1980 1796 1563 1309 1091 860 634 421 231 175 368 471 553 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 7 7 9 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 19 21 20 10 5 4 5 4 8 2 0 6 25 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 788 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 26. 27. 26. 25. 22. 21. 23. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 137.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902024 INVEST 08/20/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.28 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.2% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 5.6% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% SDCON: 0% 6.0% 3.1% .5% 0% 3.7% 4.3% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902024 INVEST 08/20/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##