* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902024 08/20/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 44 49 54 57 60 58 59 56 55 52 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 44 49 54 57 60 58 59 56 55 52 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 35 37 38 39 39 38 37 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 24 21 20 22 20 13 13 13 8 7 7 7 5 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -5 -2 -2 -4 -5 -5 -3 0 -3 -5 -5 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 64 65 61 62 51 36 49 40 25 6 359 307 303 298 260 252 234 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.4 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 144 145 145 147 148 144 140 136 131 127 126 125 124 127 130 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 55 56 58 60 64 68 68 67 65 61 55 52 49 48 47 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 16 16 20 21 21 21 22 20 22 20 20 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 57 74 76 77 74 85 84 64 47 46 39 32 14 11 12 17 19 200 MB DIV -1 59 87 88 81 75 74 32 18 31 10 -6 -1 0 12 -8 10 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -4 -6 -3 0 0 2 1 3 4 5 4 3 LAND (KM) 2119 2126 2134 2096 2059 1941 1728 1494 1289 1047 784 565 389 240 136 197 340 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.8 13.8 14.4 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.6 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.7 137.4 137.0 137.2 137.3 138.0 139.7 141.8 143.7 145.9 148.3 150.4 152.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 5 5 5 8 10 10 10 12 11 9 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 21 19 18 21 17 8 6 4 3 2 5 2 2 7 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 21. 26. 30. 33. 34. 34. 34. 33. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -15. -14. -13. -11. -9. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 12. 13. 10. 8. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 33. 34. 31. 30. 27. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 137.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902024 INVEST 08/20/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.32 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 15.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 5.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% SDCON: .5% 6.0% 3.3% .5% 0% 4.6% 5.0% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902024 INVEST 08/20/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##