* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902024 08/19/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 46 55 61 64 66 64 64 60 57 56 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 46 55 61 64 66 64 64 60 57 56 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 39 42 45 46 47 47 46 45 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 23 22 19 16 18 13 12 8 9 6 12 7 12 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -1 -8 -4 0 -2 -2 -3 -6 -4 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 65 66 70 68 69 55 51 56 20 10 13 324 330 306 282 250 248 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.2 27.2 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 144 145 146 148 146 136 136 130 125 124 124 124 125 128 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 56 59 60 59 61 67 64 62 56 52 43 41 37 36 32 32 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 14 15 19 21 23 23 23 22 24 23 21 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 55 61 63 74 71 75 81 96 77 81 71 69 55 53 42 45 45 200 MB DIV 1 1 54 59 59 69 62 70 23 57 47 17 10 6 17 -4 1 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -7 -3 -2 -1 -1 3 1 8 4 8 LAND (KM) 2131 2145 2159 2131 2103 2039 1859 1592 1391 1167 927 734 591 394 174 28 135 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 4 4 4 6 10 10 10 10 10 7 8 10 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 22 20 19 20 22 10 4 4 1 0 0 1 0 2 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 32. 33. 33. 32. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -10. -9. -7. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 8. 14. 17. 17. 17. 15. 15. 13. 9. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 21. 30. 36. 39. 41. 39. 39. 35. 32. 31. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 137.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902024 INVEST 08/19/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.36 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.5% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 4.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% SDCON: 0% 3.8% 2.4% .5% 0% 2.7% 3.8% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902024 INVEST 08/19/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##