* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902024 08/19/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 32 33 39 43 46 49 50 51 48 48 48 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 32 33 39 43 46 49 50 51 48 48 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 28 26 24 24 25 26 27 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 26 26 27 27 32 35 21 16 5 7 9 15 16 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -8 -5 -4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 74 69 65 66 65 45 47 42 47 56 59 89 114 135 132 134 167 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.1 27.1 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 139 140 142 143 147 147 144 138 131 132 139 145 147 149 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 58 60 66 72 75 73 67 61 55 48 45 45 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 12 13 14 14 16 17 22 22 22 23 24 25 25 24 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 49 57 59 48 38 33 26 11 16 7 -2 -35 -36 -39 -40 200 MB DIV 24 0 0 26 49 55 69 105 72 44 33 15 -7 -6 -21 -24 -3 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -4 -1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2088 2091 2087 2094 2109 2142 2171 2143 2081 2022 1967 1902 1881 1886 1887 1878 1807 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.9 11.1 13.0 15.1 16.3 16.8 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.9 138.0 138.1 138.1 138.0 137.7 137.2 136.8 136.5 136.3 136.5 137.0 137.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 1 3 4 8 10 9 4 2 4 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 15 15 17 20 21 22 26 13 6 7 15 22 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -15. -26. -31. -33. -32. -30. -27. -24. -21. -19. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 15. 17. 18. 17. 18. 17. 15. 13. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. 23. 23. 23. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 137.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902024 INVEST 08/19/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.29 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.9% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0% 2.3% 1.6% 0% 0% 2.0% .5% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902024 INVEST 08/19/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##