* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902024 08/19/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 32 34 36 39 43 44 48 48 49 47 48 47 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 32 34 36 39 43 44 48 48 49 47 48 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 29 27 24 23 22 22 22 21 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 18 23 28 30 32 35 34 27 20 13 14 15 18 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -5 -9 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -5 -3 1 4 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 87 83 64 61 58 60 47 40 46 66 59 45 82 122 110 122 148 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 146 146 146 146 147 148 148 146 141 140 143 146 147 147 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -52.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 57 56 60 67 71 73 71 65 57 50 46 43 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 13 14 14 15 18 20 20 22 22 23 21 22 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 34 44 42 43 38 45 32 28 34 16 6 -5 -24 -67 -70 -51 -33 200 MB DIV 26 50 48 26 9 80 53 51 121 115 76 38 0 2 14 13 -3 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2048 2054 2060 2070 2083 2132 2179 2210 2193 2148 2108 2074 2057 2070 2095 2078 2022 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.0 9.6 9.3 9.1 8.9 9.0 9.4 10.7 12.4 14.1 15.1 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.2 138.4 138.6 138.7 138.7 138.3 137.7 137.1 136.5 136.1 135.8 135.8 135.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 3 3 6 8 9 8 3 1 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 18 19 19 19 20 25 19 33 29 25 32 25 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 33. 36. 38. 38. 38. 38. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -16. -27. -36. -40. -42. -41. -39. -34. -30. -29. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 12. 17. 16. 18. 17. 17. 13. 12. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 18. 19. 23. 23. 24. 22. 23. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 138.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902024 INVEST 08/19/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.36 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.7% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.6% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 3.7% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% SDCON: .5% 3.8% 2.4% .5% 0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902024 INVEST 08/19/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##