* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902024 08/18/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 42 44 48 51 52 52 53 51 49 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 42 44 48 51 52 52 53 51 49 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 32 33 33 31 29 28 29 30 31 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 22 24 26 25 27 31 35 28 17 15 8 10 17 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -3 -5 -2 -5 -4 -1 -5 -1 -6 -4 -6 -8 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 99 88 81 68 61 56 47 35 53 58 59 107 124 143 167 173 167 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 145 145 146 146 147 147 146 145 138 138 141 143 148 149 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 61 61 61 61 63 68 73 78 77 70 65 57 56 49 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 10 12 16 18 19 21 23 22 23 24 24 23 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 42 41 41 46 28 28 71 61 37 43 8 -34 -89 -65 -60 200 MB DIV 15 28 34 33 7 57 83 57 98 121 50 12 6 -34 -42 0 -32 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 2 3 2 3 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 2103 2126 2140 2155 2173 2219 2274 2309 2294 2250 2186 2151 2107 2066 2018 1973 1924 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.2 9.8 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.8 9.3 10.8 12.8 14.8 16.0 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.5 137.5 137.6 137.7 137.7 137.4 136.8 136.1 135.4 134.9 134.8 134.8 135.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 6 10 10 9 4 2 5 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 18 18 20 21 24 23 11 18 12 15 21 28 24 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 840 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 34. 37. 38. 38. 38. 37. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -14. -24. -32. -38. -38. -38. -35. -30. -26. -25. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 15. 20. 22. 20. 20. 19. 17. 14. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 28. 26. 24. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 137.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902024 INVEST 08/18/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.31 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.3% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902024 INVEST 08/18/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##