* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902024 06/16/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 45 51 54 53 53 54 55 53 50 47 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 26 26 26 27 27 34 37 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 25 26 26 27 29 27 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 13 17 24 23 15 15 23 34 35 35 33 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 3 5 -2 0 -1 1 0 4 -1 2 5 9 -2 SHEAR DIR 71 56 50 34 11 16 13 339 343 303 217 227 252 266 270 290 302 SST (C) 30.3 30.0 29.3 28.8 29.2 29.3 28.5 29.1 29.6 31.4 27.4 25.1 24.2 23.6 29.8 30.7 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 158 153 158 159 151 158 165 175 141 116 105 99 163 170 169 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.2 -50.6 -50.2 -49.8 -49.2 -49.0 -48.6 -48.5 -48.5 -48.5 -48.6 -49.1 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 6 4 7 7 7 7 10 7 11 9 10 8 11 700-500 MB RH 83 84 86 87 90 91 84 78 70 65 64 56 52 51 42 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 96 126 123 123 139 162 117 65 62 21 43 -10 4 -39 -39 -65 200 MB DIV 130 138 128 141 143 97 94 21 66 49 47 34 3 26 -6 -33 -31 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 4 4 22 -3 5 -2 20 54 52 32 28 19 8 0 LAND (KM) 107 53 -39 -153 -151 -72 -63 256 296 -112 -547 -562 -610 -782 -999 -897 -791 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.3 18.4 20.8 23.3 25.8 27.7 29.0 30.7 33.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.9 92.5 91.9 91.1 90.3 89.0 89.2 91.0 94.2 98.5 102.7 105.7 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 11 12 12 13 17 21 21 18 14 12 10 10 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 19 10 27 20 19 22 39 7 2 0 0 0 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 16. 21. 21. 21. 21. 19. 17. 17. 21. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 10. 11. 9. 1. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 26. 29. 28. 28. 29. 30. 28. 25. 22. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 92.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902024 INVEST 06/16/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.48 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 136.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.83 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.8% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 23.2% 20.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 40.4% 16.9% 11.9% 2.0% 40.3% 50.9% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.2% 3.2% 0.6% 0.0% 4.2% 2.3% 2.7% Consensus: 0.9% 23.5% 12.8% 4.2% 0.7% 22.6% 24.5% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902024 INVEST 06/16/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##