* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902024 06/16/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 46 52 56 57 55 57 57 56 51 46 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 27 27 27 27 33 37 38 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 24 25 26 27 29 27 26 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 11 10 8 12 18 15 28 13 10 21 27 35 33 33 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 2 0 5 -2 0 0 4 0 1 1 2 0 6 2 SHEAR DIR 72 70 51 31 10 360 12 339 341 298 223 216 240 257 269 277 299 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 29.7 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.2 28.9 29.6 30.3 30.3 25.2 25.5 23.6 23.6 25.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 161 155 155 159 158 156 164 172 171 117 119 99 98 111 152 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.6 -50.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.0 -50.7 -49.5 -49.6 -48.6 -49.0 -48.2 -48.7 -48.4 -48.6 -48.8 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 4 5 5 8 5 9 6 11 6 10 7 10 8 700-500 MB RH 83 83 85 86 87 91 86 79 72 66 63 59 53 51 47 47 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 82 100 124 115 128 140 124 56 47 40 29 37 -4 -9 -51 -54 200 MB DIV 124 130 146 133 140 110 80 67 31 96 43 38 -7 7 12 -32 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 4 6 19 3 4 -11 43 22 50 42 22 19 1 0 LAND (KM) 138 92 15 -85 -183 -109 -140 159 422 46 -394 -550 -504 -575 -762 -896 -937 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.8 15.6 17.7 20.1 22.6 25.2 27.2 28.3 29.5 31.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.0 92.7 92.1 91.3 90.6 89.3 89.0 90.4 93.0 97.0 101.3 104.8 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 8 10 11 12 13 16 20 21 18 15 12 10 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 21 17 4 11 4 17 39 28 5 0 0 0 0 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -1. -0. 5. 11. 17. 21. 23. 22. 22. 21. 19. 18. 19. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 1. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 21. 27. 31. 32. 30. 32. 32. 31. 26. 21. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 93.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902024 INVEST 06/16/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.45 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.82 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.9% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 23.9% 21.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 52.8% 24.5% 17.3% 4.4% 51.8% 61.0% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.4% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 7.4% 7.7% 4.2% Consensus: 1.4% 27.4% 15.1% 6.0% 1.5% 27.7% 29.9% 3.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902024 INVEST 06/16/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##