* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142024 11/07/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 22 25 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 22 25 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 18 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 17 16 17 21 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 2 4 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 147 139 125 99 84 74 81 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.2 28.9 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 155 158 160 154 151 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 63 61 64 66 66 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -33 -29 -22 -10 1 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 1 13 32 49 33 30 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 5 6 8 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 569 585 595 614 638 690 714 682 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.2 12.8 12.4 12.0 11.3 10.8 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.1 104.6 104.0 103.7 103.3 102.9 102.3 101.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 31 29 27 24 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 6. 13. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -0. 3. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 105.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142024 FOURTEEN 11/07/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.26 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.2% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 4.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0% 3.1% 1.7% 0% 0% 2.3% 2.3% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142024 FOURTEEN 11/07/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##