* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142024 11/06/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 21 24 28 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 21 24 28 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 18 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 13 17 17 14 19 25 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 4 2 3 3 -2 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 136 145 142 126 99 78 82 68 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 156 159 155 152 151 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 58 60 62 62 67 66 68 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -34 -29 -26 -19 -2 8 15 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -6 -1 19 26 48 36 25 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 5 6 7 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 571 557 543 578 607 685 699 716 692 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.0 12.4 11.4 11.0 10.6 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.4 104.9 104.4 104.0 103.5 103.0 102.4 101.8 101.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 7 6 5 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 33 33 31 27 20 18 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 3. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 105.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142024 FOURTEEN 11/06/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.38 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.3% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.9% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4.5% 4.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 2.9% 1.7% 0% 0% 2.2% 2.2% .6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142024 FOURTEEN 11/06/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##