* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP132024 11/02/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 42 41 40 34 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 42 41 40 34 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 44 44 43 38 32 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 14 14 20 24 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 3 1 -1 1 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 208 224 234 238 246 257 267 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 146 147 146 142 140 138 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 56 55 52 50 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 7 16 16 13 -3 0 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -23 -16 -3 0 -7 -8 -7 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2390 2429 2469 2521 2574 2432 2289 2132 1986 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.8 130.4 130.9 131.6 132.3 133.7 135.1 136.7 138.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 13. 18. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -0. -6. -13. -20. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.3 129.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132024 LANE 11/02/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.61 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.42 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.94 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 17.9% 13.3% 10.7% 7.7% 17.2% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 13.1% 8.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 10.9% 7.2% 4.1% 2.9% 5.8% 4.6% 0.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.7% 5.9% 4.1% 2.5% 1.9% 2.9% 2.3% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132024 LANE 11/02/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##