* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112024 10/03/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 30 31 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 30 31 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 20 20 21 18 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 7 7 6 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 52 50 55 67 60 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 168 169 169 168 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 5 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 82 83 84 86 84 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 51 45 44 45 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 97 78 77 76 61 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -4 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 143 127 112 69 30 -67 -165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.5 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.2 96.1 96.1 96.0 96.0 96.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 35 35 36 36 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. 1. 4. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 96.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112024 ELEVEN 10/03/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.01 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 20.4% 13.7% 10.7% 0.0% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 11.8% 2.3% 1.5% 0.2% 3.8% 7.5% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 11.0% 5.4% 4.1% 0.1% 7.5% 2.5% 2.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.5% 6.0% 2.7% 2.0% 0% 3.7% 1.2% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112024 ELEVEN 10/03/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##