* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112024 10/03/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 31 29 31 35 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 31 29 31 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 27 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 26 23 19 18 18 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 5 6 -1 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 63 52 59 61 74 71 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.6 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 167 168 169 170 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 5 5 3 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 82 83 83 84 86 83 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 48 53 47 41 47 53 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 115 95 96 97 66 48 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -5 -4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 174 153 133 115 98 21 -73 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.6 16.7 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.7 96.8 96.8 96.9 97.0 96.9 97.7 99.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 5 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 37 38 39 41 41 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -4. -1. 4. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. 1. 5. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 96.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112024 ELEVEN 10/03/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.03 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.67 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.34 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 21.8% 14.9% 11.8% 0.0% 19.8% 19.3% 47.6% Logistic: 0.5% 7.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 2.8% 10.1% 10.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 3.0% 10.2% 5.4% 4.2% 0.1% 7.5% 9.8% 19.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.5% 5.6% 3.2% 2.1% 0% 3.7% 4.9% 10.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112024 ELEVEN 10/03/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##