* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112024 10/02/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 30 28 29 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 30 28 29 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 26 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 28 27 22 20 19 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 3 4 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 66 67 55 56 69 82 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.1 30.8 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 167 168 168 168 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 4 3 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 83 84 84 83 84 82 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 60 47 57 46 48 56 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 111 103 100 83 76 76 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 151 152 157 153 150 97 56 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.5 15.1 15.7 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.4 96.6 96.9 97.1 97.3 97.8 98.3 98.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 3 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 36 38 39 41 46 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 3. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 96.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112024 ELEVEN 10/02/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 5.3% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 2.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .5% 4.8% .5% .5% 0% .1% .9% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112024 ELEVEN 10/02/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##