* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972024 10/02/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 27 29 32 37 39 39 42 44 44 39 37 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 27 29 32 28 27 27 32 34 35 29 28 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 23 23 24 26 26 30 32 32 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 27 27 26 27 23 23 21 16 18 13 10 15 13 8 3 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 0 4 6 6 SHEAR DIR 85 81 71 65 65 65 76 76 79 57 74 82 112 108 134 64 229 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.0 30.9 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 31.1 31.1 31.0 30.4 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 167 167 169 169 169 169 170 170 171 171 171 172 171 167 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 3 5 3 5 4 7 4 8 5 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 80 81 82 81 82 84 84 83 80 78 74 74 74 67 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 10 8 7 8 10 10 10 11 12 13 6 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 39 37 41 48 55 55 64 71 73 73 71 53 60 49 60 78 200 MB DIV 122 109 82 84 117 118 102 121 111 80 42 4 24 11 14 25 73 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -7 -8 -21 -10 -14 4 0 LAND (KM) 272 287 287 282 267 204 109 16 -87 -167 -33 107 296 256 211 267 271 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.3 15.0 15.8 16.7 17.8 19.1 20.4 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.1 99.2 99.2 99.1 99.0 98.5 97.9 97.4 97.1 97.0 96.5 95.6 94.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 0 1 2 4 5 5 5 7 7 8 9 10 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 38 38 39 42 46 43 36 24 29 35 41 45 41 42 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -5. -6. -3. 2. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. 25. 28. 32. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -14. -16. -16. -15. -14. -11. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. -2. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 7. 12. 14. 14. 17. 19. 19. 14. 12. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 99.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972024 INVEST 10/02/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.94 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.01 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.67 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.34 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.5% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 6.8% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 7.3% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.3% 2.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% SDCON: 0% 4.6% 2.8% 0% 0% .6% 1.6% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972024 INVEST 10/02/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##