* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102024 09/27/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 52 48 44 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 44 39 39 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 57 54 43 39 37 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 16 13 12 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 7 6 5 3 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 129 130 112 110 115 133 103 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.0 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 169 170 169 164 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 5 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 62 59 55 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 14 13 10 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 89 106 114 113 79 87 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 106 46 28 49 49 35 44 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 10 10 3 4 3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 47 25 3 0 -5 48 127 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.5 20.2 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.2 103.3 103.7 104.2 105.6 106.9 108.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 6 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 43 43 43 44 44 42 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 350 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -17. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.8 103.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102024 JOHN 09/27/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.64 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.20 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.39 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 24.0% 18.3% 15.7% 13.4% 22.0% 17.5% 12.8% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 8.5% 6.3% 5.3% 4.5% 7.3% 5.8% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 4.2% 3.1% 2.6% 2.2% 3.6% 2.9% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102024 JOHN 09/27/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##