* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102024 09/26/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 66 63 59 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 66 52 38 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 68 69 68 55 39 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 17 13 12 11 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 2 6 1 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 119 127 118 116 115 117 140 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.6 30.5 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 169 169 170 169 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -50.5 -50.0 -50.9 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 8 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 64 62 54 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 18 15 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 66 79 97 115 119 82 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 81 88 50 35 70 29 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 10 3 7 5 5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 69 56 43 9 -23 -64 -2 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.6 20.3 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.6 102.8 103.0 103.2 103.4 104.2 105.6 107.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 44 43 43 43 46 49 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. -2. -6. -12. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.4 102.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102024 JOHN 09/26/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.60 10.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.36 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -10.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 9.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.39 2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.6% 50.6% 42.6% 34.0% 24.7% 29.2% 20.9% 16.1% Logistic: 7.0% 18.6% 9.4% 5.5% 1.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.4% 14.0% 5.2% 2.3% 0.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 14.0% 27.7% 19.1% 13.9% 9.1% 10.8% 7.2% 5.4% DTOPS: 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 11.5% 13.8% 9.5% 6.9% 4.5% 5.4% 3.6% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102024 JOHN 09/26/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##