* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102024 09/25/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 56 57 56 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 56 57 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 61 64 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 12 13 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 83 111 120 130 118 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.0 30.9 30.8 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 168 168 168 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.6 -50.2 -50.4 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 8 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 72 72 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 16 18 17 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 68 69 69 96 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 118 106 127 121 88 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 7 5 8 6 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 85 70 55 28 1 -44 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.5 101.4 101.3 101.3 101.3 101.3 101.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 2 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 43 43 43 42 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. 1. 0. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 12. 11. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.7 101.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102024 JOHN 09/25/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 20.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 15.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.58 11.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -18.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.72 13.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 8.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.38 4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 4.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 6.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 72% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 66% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.9% 74.9% 69.8% 63.6% 47.2% 72.5% 66.2% 53.7% Logistic: 10.5% 30.9% 16.9% 10.5% 4.6% 18.8% 17.5% 4.7% Bayesian: 24.4% 38.3% 43.9% 27.3% 2.2% 6.0% 3.8% 26.7% Consensus: 22.3% 48.0% 43.5% 33.8% 18.0% 32.4% 29.2% 28.4% DTOPS: 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 13.6% 26.5% 23.2% 18.4% 9.5% 16.2% 14.6% 14.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102024 JOHN 09/25/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##