* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102024 09/23/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 92 99 107 111 113 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 92 99 107 85 54 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 95 106 112 92 57 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 3 0 3 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 4 6 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 78 183 303 180 30 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.9 30.7 30.4 30.1 29.7 29.3 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 166 162 158 153 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 71 71 71 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 8 8 12 14 13 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 61 62 63 65 63 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 78 76 83 102 77 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 1 1 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 110 73 36 9 -18 -49 -73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.4 98.3 98.1 98.0 97.8 97.5 97.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 33 30 27 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 9. 13. 14. 14. 10. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 12. 19. 27. 31. 33. 29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.2 98.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102024 JOHN 09/23/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.43 12.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 28.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.54 11.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -17.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.58 11.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 11.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 12.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 86% is 13.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 80% is 6.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 77% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 76% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 13.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 86.2% 79.5% 77.0% 76.0% 55.5% 52.1% 19.9% 12.0% Logistic: 84.7% 90.3% 87.6% 87.3% 40.6% 85.7% 39.4% 5.8% Bayesian: 50.8% 55.3% 65.3% 64.8% 11.2% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 73.9% 75.0% 76.7% 76.1% 35.8% 47.1% 19.8% 5.9% DTOPS: 84.0% 5.0% 5.0% 8.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 78.9% 40.0% 40.8% 42.0% 21.4% 23.5% 9.9% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102024 JOHN 09/23/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##