* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102024 09/23/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 52 60 63 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 52 60 63 64 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 50 52 57 62 66 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 5 5 8 12 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 9 5 1 0 0 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 46 44 53 84 48 5 344 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.4 30.0 29.6 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 169 169 167 163 159 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 8 6 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 69 72 72 72 75 72 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 48 48 53 57 53 51 47 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 108 91 86 80 127 119 93 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -6 -3 -8 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 214 199 185 149 117 59 45 40 -78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.4 16.0 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.5 98.4 98.3 98.0 97.6 96.8 95.9 94.7 93.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 30 31 32 33 32 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 5. 9. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 12. 20. 23. 24. 24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.2 98.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102024 JOHN 09/23/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 14.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.43 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -12.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 54.9% 40.5% 27.0% 16.5% 51.7% 68.8% 53.5% Logistic: 32.7% 79.0% 65.1% 59.3% 10.8% 73.7% 41.8% 13.5% Bayesian: 18.4% 72.8% 71.3% 50.1% 3.4% 57.6% 40.9% 24.2% Consensus: 22.0% 68.9% 59.0% 45.5% 10.2% 61.0% 50.5% 30.4% DTOPS: 8.0% 12.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 15.0% 40.4% 33.5% 25.7% 6.6% 33.0% 26.2% 15.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102024 JOHN 09/23/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##