* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102024 09/23/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 48 56 61 64 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 48 56 61 44 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 42 46 51 40 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 6 10 8 6 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 8 8 4 1 -2 -2 -2 -4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 32 24 44 47 81 54 2 341 302 295 330 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.6 30.2 29.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 168 169 169 165 163 155 153 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 8 6 7 5 8 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 69 72 72 73 73 75 75 76 72 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 51 49 48 57 64 56 46 59 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 111 104 100 86 122 130 94 75 74 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -5 -5 -5 -4 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 249 227 206 178 152 83 70 74 -100 -153 -139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.1 15.7 16.6 17.1 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.6 98.5 98.3 98.0 97.8 96.9 96.0 94.8 93.2 92.7 92.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 3 4 4 6 8 6 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 29 30 31 32 33 28 25 19 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 6. 12. 16. 19. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 31. 34. 32. 31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 98.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102024 TEN 09/23/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 10.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.43 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -8.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 44.6% 24.9% 17.2% 0.0% 34.9% 62.3% 53.3% Logistic: 25.8% 74.9% 60.9% 52.6% 9.0% 76.7% 56.9% 26.7% Bayesian: 3.5% 48.7% 46.1% 23.0% 1.0% 41.2% 43.0% 27.2% Consensus: 14.1% 56.1% 44.0% 30.9% 3.3% 50.9% 54.1% 35.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% SDCON: 8.0% 33.5% 24.5% 16.4% 2.1% 26.4% 28.0% 19.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102024 TEN 09/23/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##