* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942024 09/22/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 44 52 62 66 57 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 44 52 62 66 47 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 46 53 58 43 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 5 5 7 6 9 1 9 9 1 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 6 4 3 0 1 -1 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 51 36 34 49 71 187 313 343 232 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.6 30.0 29.7 28.9 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 167 168 168 168 161 158 151 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 7 6 8 7 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 66 69 72 74 75 75 74 71 69 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 11 14 13 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 43 47 44 43 59 78 79 82 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 73 94 81 72 97 148 138 147 135 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 -1 -5 -3 -4 0 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 263 246 228 207 185 129 56 11 -13 -77 -160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 28 29 30 31 33 32 26 24 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 4. 9. 12. 15. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. -5. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 22. 32. 36. 27. 25. 25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 98.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942024 INVEST 09/22/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.49 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 36.2% 19.7% 16.3% 0.0% 28.0% 55.9% 53.3% Logistic: 22.8% 68.3% 53.3% 41.4% 8.4% 64.9% 63.7% 35.2% Bayesian: 4.4% 57.6% 43.4% 21.3% 1.8% 42.4% 42.1% 28.9% Consensus: 13.1% 54.0% 38.8% 26.3% 3.4% 45.1% 53.9% 39.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% SDCON: 7.5% 32.5% 22.4% 14.6% 2.2% 24.5% 28.9% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942024 INVEST 09/22/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##