* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942024 09/22/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 49 58 67 75 75 71 70 73 70 69 66 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 49 58 67 75 55 36 38 41 37 36 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 45 51 57 45 32 36 38 36 32 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 2 2 2 6 4 8 12 8 14 22 24 20 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 7 7 2 -2 -1 -3 -1 1 5 2 4 7 5 3 SHEAR DIR 69 68 92 97 343 131 146 152 102 105 57 39 56 54 40 41 35 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.5 29.5 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.7 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 167 166 167 166 168 169 160 171 169 165 168 168 169 166 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 7 8 6 7 5 7 5 8 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 67 70 75 79 80 83 81 81 80 79 70 63 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 9 9 12 13 11 7 5 7 6 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 33 41 45 44 43 54 60 74 43 26 7 -14 -10 -24 -5 200 MB DIV 42 21 20 35 50 69 77 98 109 114 104 8 -13 -14 19 0 10 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 4 1 0 0 0 -3 -8 -8 0 1 -1 4 1 2 LAND (KM) 360 343 323 305 286 231 223 173 83 -85 -43 116 217 200 72 20 130 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.8 15.8 17.3 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.8 98.6 98.2 97.8 97.3 96.2 95.1 94.1 93.0 91.3 89.3 87.1 85.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 10 12 12 8 7 5 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 24 24 26 25 26 28 22 56 44 77 117 136 166 116 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 10. 17. 23. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 43. 45. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 9. 3. 1. 3. 1. 1. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 24. 33. 42. 50. 50. 46. 45. 48. 45. 44. 41. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 98.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942024 INVEST 09/22/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.45 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.9% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 22.4% 25.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 31.1% 17.3% 11.2% 1.8% 40.8% 42.3% 48.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 6.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 3.5% 10.0% 10.5% Consensus: 0.9% 19.7% 11.3% 3.8% 0.6% 22.3% 25.9% 19.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942024 INVEST 09/22/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##