* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942024 09/22/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 37 45 56 66 71 76 77 73 72 71 69 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 37 45 56 66 71 76 44 40 38 38 32 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 49 55 59 38 36 35 33 30 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 9 5 3 2 10 12 14 17 19 26 27 20 19 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 2 3 5 0 -4 -1 -1 2 6 7 8 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 50 60 62 83 59 37 13 126 115 91 86 47 44 41 42 40 13 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.5 31.2 31.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 164 165 165 165 169 170 170 167 170 171 169 170 172 173 169 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -50.8 -51.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.0 -50.2 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 6 7 4 6 4 5 5 8 8 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 63 66 73 78 81 84 82 85 84 79 65 54 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 4 5 6 8 9 9 11 10 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 25 30 39 43 40 47 64 85 106 96 56 -37 -36 -88 -81 200 MB DIV 30 36 22 22 18 31 66 68 83 135 146 75 0 -42 -74 5 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 1 0 -9 5 13 -5 0 6 5 LAND (KM) 389 374 362 353 335 307 288 236 130 4 -121 91 292 142 -6 140 -4 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.9 16.6 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 98.9 98.5 98.0 97.5 96.6 95.5 94.3 93.1 91.5 89.4 86.9 84.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 4 5 4 5 6 6 6 10 13 15 12 10 12 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 22 22 23 25 26 28 25 7 44 88 92 109 54 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 37. 40. 43. 44. 46. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 8. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 31. 41. 46. 51. 52. 48. 47. 46. 44. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 99.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942024 INVEST 09/22/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.91 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.41 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 21.2% 20.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 20.8% 10.0% 6.0% 1.5% 23.2% 41.2% 55.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 13.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 3.4% 14.7% 3.9% Consensus: 0.8% 18.6% 8.8% 2.1% 0.6% 15.9% 25.6% 19.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942024 INVEST 09/22/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##