* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 08/02/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 25 26 30 34 39 44 45 43 40 35 32 29 28 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 25 26 30 34 39 44 45 43 40 35 32 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 26 24 21 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 18 19 18 19 15 12 8 15 25 38 41 41 35 47 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 3 1 0 0 5 5 4 0 -10 -8 -7 3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 65 62 63 66 62 44 28 48 357 70 95 80 68 56 54 59 71 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 152 151 149 150 154 154 154 153 154 150 147 147 150 152 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 57 52 48 48 47 44 44 47 55 58 63 66 69 64 58 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 17 24 35 28 40 7 3 -14 -5 27 28 0 -47 -78 -76 200 MB DIV 43 55 41 27 72 80 105 71 54 50 55 85 138 156 94 70 62 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 5 6 10 6 2 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 2050 2104 2163 2224 2278 2357 2362 2283 2113 1936 1873 1938 2018 2048 2005 1906 1826 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.2 11.6 11.3 11.2 11.5 11.8 11.2 9.8 8.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.2 127.8 128.4 128.9 129.3 129.7 129.4 128.3 126.4 124.3 122.7 122.0 121.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 3 4 7 10 9 8 8 5 2 3 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 21 20 19 16 17 19 17 23 28 35 32 31 29 28 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 44. 45. 46. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -9. -11. -14. -20. -27. -31. -32. -34. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 9. 14. 19. 20. 18. 15. 10. 7. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 127.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 08/02/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.20 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.44 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.3% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 2.8% 1.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% .7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 08/02/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##