* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 08/01/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 23 27 32 37 41 43 44 45 43 43 42 41 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 23 27 32 37 41 43 44 45 43 43 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 13 15 17 19 14 19 17 24 17 19 27 27 37 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 4 4 5 3 3 3 4 2 -1 -1 -3 -8 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 98 85 79 73 64 56 51 50 55 33 55 74 104 117 101 91 69 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.8 29.3 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 153 154 156 155 156 158 155 158 149 149 152 156 155 153 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 58 58 52 52 51 57 63 74 77 78 77 80 79 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 9 7 8 19 22 42 70 84 78 62 36 27 34 62 106 104 200 MB DIV 43 33 35 45 49 40 92 108 86 76 46 63 27 44 95 114 107 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 -3 -2 2 9 10 13 15 LAND (KM) 1786 1824 1854 1893 1932 2017 2095 2080 1951 1676 1375 1220 1205 1290 1406 1529 1486 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.3 12.9 12.3 12.1 12.3 13.3 14.8 15.6 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.2 124.7 125.1 125.5 125.9 126.6 127.0 126.6 125.1 122.4 119.9 118.7 118.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 12 15 11 4 2 5 6 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 26 28 26 21 22 21 24 20 48 24 23 32 52 38 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 11. 18. 25. 31. 35. 38. 39. 41. 43. 45. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -0. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 23. 23. 22. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 124.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 08/01/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% SDCON: 0% .7% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 08/01/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##