* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 07/31/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 26 29 35 39 41 42 45 49 51 50 46 45 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 26 29 35 39 41 42 45 49 51 50 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 19 20 22 23 25 27 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 9 10 11 13 11 15 17 12 9 7 9 26 29 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 4 0 0 0 1 2 5 6 9 0 3 SHEAR DIR 97 96 112 108 113 103 102 70 63 56 81 45 59 84 83 89 77 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.2 28.8 28.8 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 151 149 149 150 151 151 151 150 151 153 157 155 153 154 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 67 61 61 59 56 56 50 49 46 51 49 51 55 63 68 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 4 12 14 17 24 24 33 35 58 46 58 35 13 73 84 114 49 200 MB DIV 54 53 61 57 44 45 52 63 77 85 108 95 68 41 -28 96 77 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 7 5 0 1 LAND (KM) 1672 1681 1701 1746 1784 1878 1977 2103 2256 2364 2411 2396 2290 2121 1846 1538 1425 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.6 12.9 12.4 12.2 12.1 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.1 123.6 124.2 124.7 125.9 127.2 128.5 129.8 130.7 131.1 130.8 129.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 4 1 3 8 11 15 10 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 17 19 20 29 16 17 16 14 15 15 17 20 25 18 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 39. 41. 44. 46. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 9. 15. 19. 21. 22. 25. 29. 31. 30. 26. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 122.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 07/31/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0% 1.1% .2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 07/31/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##