* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942024 07/30/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 46 55 63 70 73 78 81 82 81 76 72 68 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 46 55 63 70 73 78 81 82 81 76 72 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 41 47 52 57 62 65 64 61 57 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 13 13 14 11 8 8 6 7 6 9 1 3 10 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 1 2 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 -5 4 2 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 29 37 34 26 22 3 349 291 259 232 199 152 149 40 105 128 152 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.0 28.9 28.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 164 163 162 159 160 155 155 146 136 135 135 132 127 125 119 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.4 -51.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 7 6 6 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 75 78 77 79 79 79 77 75 69 67 64 70 73 75 73 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 10 11 14 17 20 24 27 29 29 27 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -3 5 8 18 39 51 71 67 65 73 56 53 54 59 110 132 200 MB DIV 55 63 108 97 98 68 52 60 52 36 45 42 20 21 -4 34 18 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 1 0 2 -4 3 0 0 0 -6 -4 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 531 553 571 564 548 518 500 566 570 713 919 1137 1304 1365 1340 1301 1259 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.2 15.3 16.5 17.6 18.3 18.7 18.7 18.4 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.6 104.6 105.5 106.2 107.4 108.6 110.2 112.4 115.2 118.1 120.7 122.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 8 9 10 12 14 14 10 7 2 1 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 36 35 34 35 25 16 13 8 5 4 3 4 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 19. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 17. 22. 24. 24. 22. 18. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 21. 30. 38. 45. 48. 53. 56. 57. 56. 51. 47. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 102.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942024 INVEST 07/30/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.91 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.39 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.58 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.0% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 23.2% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 54.9% 22.7% 16.2% 6.1% 34.7% 35.8% 17.3% Bayesian: 1.3% 22.0% 6.4% 1.8% 0.2% 4.6% 4.1% 0.8% Consensus: 3.7% 34.3% 15.5% 6.0% 2.1% 20.8% 21.0% 6.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942024 INVEST 07/30/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##