* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942024 07/30/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 50 60 70 78 84 90 95 95 94 95 90 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 50 60 70 78 84 90 95 95 94 95 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 52 59 68 79 89 91 86 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 20 15 15 15 8 13 10 9 5 4 8 12 14 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -1 3 0 -1 -3 -2 -4 -4 -4 -1 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 27 26 29 31 35 20 355 317 279 243 209 107 46 67 91 70 52 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.9 29.6 28.9 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.7 27.9 26.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 165 164 165 163 164 161 155 147 148 146 150 143 132 110 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -50.5 -50.9 -50.6 -51.1 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 72 74 76 75 77 78 77 77 76 75 69 69 75 78 82 80 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 12 16 21 25 29 33 36 37 39 34 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 3 6 20 20 44 43 70 64 72 79 98 79 70 113 111 200 MB DIV 57 52 49 64 93 63 74 59 50 63 50 61 94 44 69 18 38 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 -3 -4 -7 0 2 -2 LAND (KM) 441 455 456 458 469 436 392 375 450 515 691 936 1066 997 809 641 676 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.5 14.6 15.8 17.0 18.2 18.6 18.4 17.5 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.0 101.0 102.0 102.9 104.6 106.0 107.5 109.3 111.8 114.6 116.9 117.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 11 13 13 9 2 7 10 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 25 28 31 33 34 36 34 28 19 12 8 16 20 21 8 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 35. 36. 38. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 25. 28. 30. 30. 29. 27. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 25. 35. 45. 53. 59. 65. 70. 70. 69. 70. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 99.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942024 INVEST 07/30/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.37 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 19.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 8.5% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 4.9% 23.2% 19.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 3.5% Consensus: 0.2% 10.5% 5.7% 0.4% 0.2% 8.4% 14.4% 7.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: .6% 7.2% 3.8% .7% .1% 4.7% 7.7% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942024 INVEST 07/30/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##