* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942024 07/29/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 35 45 55 70 79 88 93 100 97 96 96 95 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 35 45 55 70 79 88 93 100 97 96 96 95 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 43 51 59 68 77 83 86 84 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 20 19 12 12 12 14 9 3 3 3 3 8 13 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 1 -1 -4 -1 3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 36 37 34 37 37 14 15 331 315 287 251 317 310 119 127 100 67 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.8 28.8 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.7 26.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 164 164 163 163 164 164 166 164 154 146 144 140 140 132 113 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 71 73 74 76 75 78 79 80 78 76 72 68 69 73 77 70 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 7 8 8 10 12 18 22 28 31 37 36 36 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 -2 -7 6 15 23 37 51 76 95 90 115 120 109 102 98 200 MB DIV 53 68 57 61 73 91 72 83 58 78 82 36 51 34 38 13 23 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 1 0 -4 0 -5 -5 -7 -3 -4 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 465 467 480 488 472 469 431 368 322 417 487 667 893 984 891 724 701 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.5 14.5 15.7 17.2 18.3 18.8 18.7 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.9 98.8 99.7 100.6 101.4 102.9 104.2 105.5 107.0 109.0 111.6 114.6 116.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 11 11 14 13 8 1 8 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 29 32 33 34 36 35 29 22 9 7 10 12 8 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 36. 38. 39. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 17. 22. 30. 31. 35. 31. 28. 24. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 20. 30. 45. 54. 63. 68. 75. 72. 71. 71. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 97.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942024 INVEST 07/29/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.91 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.32 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 2.0% 8.5% 10.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 3.3% Consensus: 0.2% 6.2% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 6.6% 8.8% 4.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942024 INVEST 07/29/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##