* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092024 09/13/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 41 39 35 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 37 40 38 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 36 39 38 36 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 15 20 23 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 4 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 141 167 183 210 231 240 258 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.5 30.4 30.8 31.4 32.1 32.6 32.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 170 168 170 169 169 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.4 -49.2 -49.4 -49.5 -49.5 -49.8 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 5 5 7 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 50 49 45 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 8 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 10 12 18 12 21 20 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 6 30 30 18 0 -8 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 0 0 -2 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 145 56 -23 16 52 69 66 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.7 23.4 24.1 24.7 25.6 26.5 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.1 109.4 109.7 109.8 109.9 110.0 110.4 110.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 19 24 27 33 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -17. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -0. -5. -11. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.9 109.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092024 ILEANA 09/13/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.49 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.51 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 38.7% 19.0% 15.9% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.2% 10.9% 9.1% 1.8% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 16.6% 9.4% 5.9% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.0% 9.3% 5.2% 3.4% 2.5% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092024 ILEANA 09/13/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##