* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092024 09/13/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 39 36 29 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 36 39 36 29 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 38 40 38 35 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 13 16 20 28 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 2 3 2 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 120 160 174 183 217 236 252 264 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.7 31.8 32.5 32.6 32.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 168 168 170 169 169 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.6 -49.4 -49.3 -49.4 -49.3 -49.5 -50.0 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 6 6 4 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 54 51 49 41 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 10 8 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 20 11 11 22 10 20 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -5 10 25 34 -12 -9 -19 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 0 0 -3 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 233 140 47 -23 11 87 62 45 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.0 22.7 23.4 24.1 25.3 26.3 27.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.1 109.5 109.7 109.9 110.0 110.2 110.8 111.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 20 20 19 22 31 38 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -20. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -11. -16. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.2 108.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092024 ILEANA 09/13/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.56 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.90 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 23.9% 18.2% 15.7% 12.9% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 6.3% 4.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 10.1% 7.5% 5.6% 4.6% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 3.1% 5.5% 4.2% 3.3% 2.3% 3.4% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092024 ILEANA 09/13/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##