* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092024 09/13/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 44 42 38 31 23 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 39 41 36 29 22 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 46 40 41 38 35 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 8 14 22 25 34 33 41 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 1 5 4 1 3 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 111 122 152 195 196 249 250 266 269 258 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 31.4 32.4 32.3 31.6 30.0 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 168 168 166 170 169 169 169 164 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.4 -49.7 -49.4 -49.2 -49.3 -49.2 -49.7 -50.0 -50.7 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 7 7 5 7 4 7 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 55 53 52 48 47 41 39 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 11 8 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 33 25 14 16 15 11 19 7 43 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 11 14 13 18 -5 -19 -21 -1 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -4 -7 -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -2 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 271 209 106 10 -16 56 77 12 -10 -61 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.0 23.8 25.0 26.1 27.1 28.0 29.1 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.8 109.3 109.7 110.0 110.2 110.2 110.4 110.8 111.4 112.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 5 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 22 19 19 17 27 37 39 36 23 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -9. -17. -22. -22. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -17. -17. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -9. -17. -17. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.6 108.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092024 ILEANA 09/13/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.87 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 36.8% 22.5% 17.4% 14.0% 24.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.0% 21.8% 13.7% 3.8% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.0% 20.4% 12.1% 7.1% 5.6% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 5.5% 10.7% 6.5% 4.0% 2.8% 4.1% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092024 ILEANA 09/13/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##