* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092024 09/12/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 38 38 38 33 30 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 38 37 37 32 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 37 35 33 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 8 9 18 25 29 30 30 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 -2 4 2 3 3 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 88 104 118 148 165 219 248 256 272 260 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.5 30.2 30.1 30.6 32.0 32.1 31.3 30.7 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 167 165 170 170 169 169 169 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.2 -49.5 -49.7 -49.5 -49.4 -49.3 -49.6 -50.1 -50.3 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 58 55 50 49 43 39 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 11 12 12 8 8 5 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 31 26 20 29 23 16 6 23 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 18 16 13 24 16 -18 -14 -8 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -5 -4 0 -3 -1 0 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 232 261 233 133 34 10 54 27 -31 -35 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.7 24.2 25.6 26.5 27.4 28.2 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.3 109.8 110.0 109.8 109.9 110.1 110.6 111.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 24 23 19 18 22 34 37 33 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -4. -9. -13. -14. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -0. -3. -4. -10. -12. -15. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -2. -5. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.5 107.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092024 ILEANA 09/12/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.59 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 22.5% 17.6% 15.0% 12.3% 22.7% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 10.5% 6.9% 5.2% 4.2% 7.7% 6.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.8% 6.7% 4.9% 3.6% 2.6% 4.3% 3.5% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092024 ILEANA 09/12/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##