* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082024 08/26/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 45 44 40 39 38 36 34 32 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 45 44 40 39 38 36 34 32 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 47 46 42 37 33 29 26 24 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 14 12 12 6 10 8 13 13 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 1 5 3 2 0 4 5 1 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 328 315 305 293 263 239 203 215 205 225 234 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.2 25.7 25.7 26.8 26.2 26.7 25.9 26.1 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 126 127 125 121 121 133 126 132 124 126 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 -53.4 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 55 53 51 51 49 45 44 43 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 15 14 12 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -19 -17 -28 -33 -23 -24 -21 -21 -21 -27 -33 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 5 2 -10 -10 10 12 14 -12 -24 -1 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 4 3 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1648 1692 1742 1800 1860 2020 2206 1998 1715 1456 1190 902 597 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.5 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.4 126.4 127.3 128.3 129.2 131.3 133.6 135.9 138.6 141.1 143.7 146.5 149.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 1 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.4 125.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082024 HECTOR 08/26/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 5.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 5.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.0% .6% .5% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082024 HECTOR 08/26/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##