* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082024 08/26/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 43 43 42 41 40 38 36 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 43 43 42 41 40 38 36 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 41 39 36 32 29 25 23 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 9 11 8 9 8 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 3 0 2 2 4 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 7 1 345 334 309 301 260 225 216 221 220 242 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.0 26.4 26.0 26.9 25.9 26.0 25.7 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 129 132 134 128 124 133 123 124 121 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 59 59 58 55 51 50 48 45 41 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 18 17 18 16 14 12 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -21 -17 -23 -19 -33 -28 -32 -23 -23 -22 -29 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 5 -1 -3 6 -7 18 15 12 -17 -15 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 3 3 1 1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1514 1583 1639 1692 1750 1891 2037 2209 1978 1725 1492 1235 969 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.6 17.9 17.7 17.8 18.0 17.8 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.4 125.4 126.4 127.4 129.4 131.5 133.7 136.1 138.5 140.7 143.2 146.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 2 3 4 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.2 123.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082024 HECTOR 08/26/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 8.4% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 8.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 6.6% 1.4% 1.3% .6% 1.1% 1.1% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082024 HECTOR 08/26/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##