* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082024 08/26/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 46 48 50 49 49 49 46 44 41 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 46 48 50 49 49 49 46 44 41 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 48 49 48 46 41 36 31 27 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 8 10 8 11 8 7 8 10 12 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -2 -3 -2 2 3 4 2 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 42 355 355 339 339 321 273 269 212 218 222 240 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.0 26.5 26.0 26.6 26.0 26.0 25.7 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 125 127 131 134 129 124 130 124 124 121 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 60 59 57 54 52 51 49 45 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 18 18 17 17 16 14 12 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -13 -25 -22 -23 -28 -29 -26 -20 -20 -25 -28 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 24 3 1 6 -14 18 16 -5 -4 -12 -15 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -4 -3 -1 -1 3 0 1 0 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1475 1544 1604 1667 1734 1859 2003 2167 2023 1782 1553 1292 998 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.1 18.1 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.9 123.9 124.9 126.0 127.0 129.0 131.1 133.3 135.6 137.9 140.1 142.6 145.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 1 3 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 9. 9. 6. 4. 1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.2 122.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082024 HECTOR 08/26/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.9% 23.9% 12.4% 9.5% 3.2% 4.2% 2.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 15.7% 4.2% 3.2% 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.5% 10.8% 4.1% 3.1% 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082024 HECTOR 08/26/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##