* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082024 08/25/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 46 47 49 50 52 52 52 49 48 42 37 32 27 23 21 V (KT) LAND 40 44 46 47 49 50 52 52 52 49 48 42 37 32 27 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 48 50 51 50 46 41 35 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 5 7 10 4 12 10 10 11 16 14 13 10 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 0 -1 -4 4 0 5 4 7 10 9 13 8 6 6 SHEAR DIR 39 50 46 24 341 313 301 262 267 257 243 225 238 224 220 232 216 SST (C) 27.3 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.8 26.9 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.5 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 129 126 125 126 131 132 125 119 114 109 102 100 96 93 95 100 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 61 61 62 58 53 52 49 48 46 44 38 34 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 17 18 18 19 18 18 16 16 12 10 7 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 -4 -17 -18 -16 -28 -25 -30 -35 -42 -57 -63 -72 -76 -79 -56 200 MB DIV 44 48 32 13 3 16 10 36 16 0 -3 7 0 -13 -1 -29 -25 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 1 6 6 7 6 4 7 8 3 -3 -11 LAND (KM) 1429 1498 1570 1621 1660 1758 1869 1961 2026 2094 2058 1949 1857 1813 1760 1690 1569 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.1 19.0 19.8 20.7 21.8 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.0 123.0 124.0 124.9 125.8 127.6 129.4 131.0 132.4 133.8 135.1 136.2 137.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 6 4 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 2 1 1 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 3. -1. -4. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -4. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 9. 8. 2. -3. -8. -13. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.9 122.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082024 HECTOR 08/25/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.46 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.68 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.95 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 20.1% 15.8% 13.2% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 21.0% 11.9% 8.1% 1.8% 4.9% 3.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 13.9% 9.2% 7.1% 4.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.4% 9.4% 6.6% 5.0% 3.0% 1.8% 1.6% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082024 HECTOR 08/25/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##