* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/28/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 39 38 37 36 34 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 39 38 37 36 34 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 37 35 33 33 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 16 12 21 25 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -6 -2 -5 -1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 289 297 298 272 248 261 268 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.7 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 122 121 119 121 124 131 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.9 -53.7 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 38 39 40 42 44 44 43 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 8 7 3 9 -2 -2 -21 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -3 -11 -19 -21 1 -13 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 5 4 3 7 2 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1151 1023 896 778 660 439 201 72 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.6 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.8 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.9 145.1 146.3 147.4 148.5 150.6 153.0 155.3 157.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -15. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.4 143.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/28/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 2.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/28/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##