* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/27/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 84 77 71 61 53 45 37 32 28 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 91 84 77 71 61 53 45 37 32 28 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 92 86 79 73 63 56 50 44 39 35 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 19 20 17 15 15 20 21 32 31 34 35 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 0 0 -3 -1 -4 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 260 278 280 266 270 274 259 252 265 262 256 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.8 26.2 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.9 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 121 126 126 124 121 119 116 119 123 127 133 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -52.4 -53.4 -54.5 -55.4 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 38 40 40 40 44 46 46 44 47 46 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 13 13 11 9 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 10 11 12 17 11 5 -5 -8 -25 -28 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -33 -23 -10 10 1 6 -9 -2 8 18 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 14 7 6 6 6 4 6 5 4 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1790 1683 1576 1460 1345 1111 889 671 453 264 124 89 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.8 19.1 19.7 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.5 22.3 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.8 138.8 139.8 140.9 142.0 144.2 146.3 148.4 150.6 152.8 155.1 157.4 159.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -26. -31. -36. -40. -43. -45. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -18. -24. -34. -42. -50. -58. -63. -67. -70. -70. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.4 137.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/27/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 845.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/27/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##