* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/26/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 85 78 72 61 53 47 39 35 30 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 92 85 78 72 61 53 47 39 35 30 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 93 87 80 73 62 55 49 43 38 34 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 19 18 16 18 20 24 32 29 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 262 267 277 276 265 273 272 249 256 254 258 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.2 25.9 26.2 26.3 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 122 125 127 121 120 118 117 120 124 127 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -52.7 -54.1 -54.6 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 39 41 41 44 45 48 44 44 43 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 13 13 12 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 13 8 8 18 9 13 -4 -3 -12 -24 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -12 -21 -30 -20 25 -3 -3 -6 -19 16 16 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 9 12 6 6 6 6 3 6 5 5 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1885 1790 1694 1588 1482 1249 1036 826 619 403 222 104 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.3 19.8 20.1 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.9 137.8 138.7 139.7 140.7 142.9 144.9 146.9 148.9 151.1 153.5 155.7 157.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -25. -31. -36. -40. -43. -45. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -10. -17. -23. -34. -42. -48. -56. -60. -65. -68. -71. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.3 136.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/26/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 814.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/26/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##