* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/26/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 75 69 64 57 51 47 41 36 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 80 75 69 64 57 51 47 41 36 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 81 76 70 65 57 51 45 40 36 33 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 18 20 17 17 20 20 29 30 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 286 275 270 277 268 277 277 258 249 267 261 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.3 25.9 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.2 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 126 122 126 124 120 120 117 118 121 126 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -52.2 -53.3 -54.2 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 41 41 41 42 44 46 46 44 43 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 14 14 12 10 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 10 18 15 8 9 9 4 -2 -12 -13 -27 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -42 -9 -14 -22 -26 -1 12 -9 -13 -6 5 13 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 7 10 5 5 5 2 7 5 3 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1972 1881 1791 1690 1589 1367 1153 941 722 528 328 170 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.2 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.1 137.0 137.8 138.8 139.7 141.8 143.8 145.8 147.9 149.8 151.9 154.2 156.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. -27. -30. -33. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -15. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -21. -28. -34. -38. -44. -49. -53. -57. -58. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.1 136.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/26/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 721.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 1.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/26/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##