* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/26/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 76 69 63 58 51 46 42 37 33 29 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 76 69 63 58 51 46 42 37 33 29 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 78 71 66 61 53 47 42 38 34 32 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 14 17 18 18 19 21 23 29 26 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 276 282 274 272 277 261 263 267 247 251 257 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.3 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.7 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 126 119 120 121 118 118 118 118 118 121 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.8 -52.4 -53.6 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 41 41 40 40 41 43 46 46 45 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 15 15 14 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 19 12 19 18 10 14 6 1 -7 -10 -12 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -38 -37 -16 -10 -23 -24 27 2 -21 0 -10 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 4 6 7 7 6 4 6 6 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2035 1939 1843 1758 1673 1470 1258 1067 868 682 479 286 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.8 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.5 136.4 137.3 138.1 138.9 140.8 142.8 144.6 146.5 148.3 150.3 152.4 154.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -14. -20. -24. -28. -32. -35. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -22. -27. -34. -39. -43. -48. -52. -56. -59. -61. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.1 135.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/26/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 730.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% .8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/26/24 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##