* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/26/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 81 74 68 63 55 49 45 42 38 35 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 81 74 68 63 55 49 45 42 38 35 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 81 75 69 64 55 49 43 39 36 33 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 13 14 17 14 16 19 18 24 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 275 283 274 271 283 255 261 259 249 244 258 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.3 25.7 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.6 25.5 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 129 130 126 120 122 119 119 118 116 119 118 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.9 -52.7 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 41 41 42 41 43 44 45 45 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 17 17 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 33 17 13 19 16 19 9 -2 -8 -8 -9 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -31 -24 -10 -9 -36 -8 12 -8 -3 0 -5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 2 0 5 5 5 5 4 4 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2120 2024 1929 1843 1758 1567 1376 1184 993 816 639 438 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.7 135.6 136.5 137.3 138.1 139.9 141.7 143.5 145.3 147.0 148.7 150.7 153.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -22. -27. -32. -36. -39. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -22. -27. -35. -41. -45. -48. -52. -55. -59. -61. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.0 134.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/26/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 753.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% .8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/26/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##